For the first time ever, forecast computer models have shown that parts of the UK could potentially reach 40C this month.
A computer model from The Weather Outlook has predicted that temperatures in south-eastern parts of the UK could exceed 40C from July 11 onwards.
However, it’s important to note this prediction has been suggested by one single member of one ensemble forecast system. Predictions tend to be more accurate when more members of the set forecast the same conditions.
For the UK to reach 40C, the weather setup would have to carry the warmest air from Africa through Spain and France and then into the UK.
While it’s looking quite unlikely at the moment, if the weather did reach 40C this month it would a record-breaking moment as the current highest temperature ever recorded in the UK is 38.7ºC on 25th July 2019 in Cambridge Botanical Gardens.
“While it is possible, it’s extremely unlikely, even if the risk is the highest it’s ever been,” said Simon Lee, a postdoctoral research scientist at Columbia University.
“Nobody can recall 40C appearing in a major global forecast system for the UK,” said Simon Lee, a postdoctoral research scientist at Columbia University.
“Especially when this forecast was also predicting temperatures over 39C over a huge area of southeast England.
“Given that the UK’s previous hottest days have only seen a few places exceed 38C, this was unlike anything forecasters had ever seen before.”
Met Office metrologist, Annie Shuttleworth, has also shared her doubts.
Speaking to The Mirror, she said: “The most likely situation for next week is temperatures in the low 30s. Further ahead there’s a lot less confidence – those high temperatures could stay for the rest of next week but could also possibly cool down again.”
So it may not reach 40C this month but meteorologists have said the UK could hit the scorching temperature in the future as a result of climate change.
“Extreme weather events and rising temperatures are due to human-induced global warming,” said Sky meteorologist Kirsty McCabe.
“Recent research indicates that towards the end of the century parts of the UK could see 40C every few years under a high emissions scenario.”
“Recent research indicates that towards the end of the century parts of the UK could see 40C every few years under a high emissions scenario.”
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